Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies     

Niklas Höhne  Michel den Elzen  Donovan Escalante 《Climate Policy》2014,14(1):122-147

Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450?ppm CO₂e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America.

Policy relevance

The concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort-sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.  相似文献   

Amphibole as an archivist of magmatic crystallization conditions: problems,potential, and implications for inferring magma storage prior to the paroxysmal 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi,Indonesia     

Saskia?ErdmannEmail author  Caroline?Martel  Michel?Pichavant  Alexandra?Kushnir 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(6):1016

Amphibole is widely employed to calculate crystallization temperature and pressure, although its potential as a geobarometer has always been debated. Recently, Ridolfi et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 160:45–66, 2010) and Ridolfi and Renzulli (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:877–895, 2012) have presented calibrations for calculating temperature, pressure, fO₂, melt H₂O, and melt major and minor oxide composition from amphibole with a large compositional range. Using their calibrations, we have (i) calculated crystallization conditions for amphibole from eleven published experimental studies to examine the problems and the potential of the new calibrations; and (ii) calculated crystallization conditions for amphibole from basaltic–andesitic pyroclasts erupted during the paroxysmal 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi in Java, Indonesia, to infer pre-eruptive conditions. Our comparison of experimental and calculated values shows that calculated crystallization temperatures are reasonable estimates. Calculated fO₂ and melt SiO₂ content yields potentially useful estimates at moderately reduced to moderately oxidized conditions and intermediate to felsic melt compositions. However, calculated crystallization pressure and melt H₂O content are untenable estimates that largely reflect compositional variation in the crystallizing magmas and crystallization temperature and not the calculated parameters. Amphibole from Merapi’s pyroclasts yields calculated conditions of ~200–800 MPa, ~900–1,050 °C, ~NNO + 0.3–NNO + 1.1, ~3.7–7.2 wt% melt H₂O, and ~58–71 wt% melt SiO₂. We interpret the variations in calculated temperature, fO₂, and melt SiO₂ content as reasonable estimates, but conclude that the large calculated pressure variation for amphibole from Merapi and many other arc volcanoes is evidence for thorough mixing of mafic to felsic magmas and not necessarily evidence for crystallization over a large depth range. In contrast, bimodal pressure estimates obtained for other arc magmas reflect amphibole crystallization from mafic and more evolved magmas, respectively, and should not necessarily be taken as evidence for crystallization in two reservoirs at variable depth.  相似文献   

Dissolution–precipitation processes governing the carbonation and silicification of the serpentinite sole of the New Caledonia ophiolite     

Marc?UlrichEmail author  Manuel?Mu?oz  Stéphane?Guillot  Michel?Cathelineau  Christian?Picard  Benoit?Quesnel  Philippe?Boulvais  Clément?Couteau 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(1):952

The weathering of mantle peridotite tectonically exposed to the atmosphere leads commonly to natural carbonation processes. Extensive cryptocrystalline magnesite veins and stock-work are widespread in the serpentinite sole of the New Caledonia ophiolite. Silica is systematically associated with magnesite. It is commonly admitted that Mg and Si are released during the laterization of overlying peridotites. Thus, the occurrence of these veins is generally attributed to a per descensum mechanism that involves the infiltration of meteoric waters enriched in dissolved atmospheric CO₂. In this study, we investigate serpentinite carbonation processes, and related silicification, based on a detailed petrographic and crystal chemical study of serpentinites. The relationships between serpentine and alteration products are described using an original method for the analysis of micro-X-ray fluorescence images performed at the centimeter scale. Our investigations highlight a carbonation mechanism, together with precipitation of amorphous silica and sepiolite, based on a dissolution–precipitation process. In contrast with the per descensum Mg/Si-enrichment model that is mainly concentrated in rock fractures, dissolution–precipitation process is much more pervasive. Thus, although the texture of rocks remains relatively preserved, this process extends more widely into the rock and may represent a major part of total carbonation of the ophiolite.  相似文献   

Field characterization and data integration to define the hydraulic heterogeneity of a shallow granular aquifer at a sub-watershed scale     

Daniel Paradis  Laurie Tremblay  René Lefebvre  Erwan Gloaguen  Alfonso Rivera  Michel Parent  Jean-Marc Ballard  Yves Michaud  Patrick Brunet 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(5):1325-1348

Providing a sound basis for aquifer management or remediation requires that hydrogeological investigations carried out to understand groundwater flow and contaminant transport be based on representative data that capture the heterogeneous spatial distribution of aquifer hydraulic properties. This paper describes a general workflow allowing the characterization of the heterogeneity of the hydraulic properties of granular aquifers at an intermediate scale of a few km². The workflow involves characterization and data integration steps that were applied on a 12-km² study area encompassing a decommissioned landfill emitting a leachate plume and its main surface water receptors. The sediments composing the aquifer were deposited in a littoral–sublittoral environment and show evidence of small-scale transitional heterogeneities. Cone penetrometer tests (CPT) combined with soil moisture and electrical resistivity (SMR) measurements were thus used to identify and characterize spatial heterogeneities in hydraulic properties over the study area. Site-specific statistical relationships were needed to infer hydrofacies units and to estimate hydraulic properties from high-resolution CPT/SMR soundings distributed all over the study area. A learning machine approach was used due to the complex statistical relationships between colocated hydraulic and CPT/SMR data covering the full range of aquifer materials. Application of this workflow allowed the identification of hydrofacies units and the estimation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity and porosity over the study area. The paper describes and discusses data acquisition and integration methodologies that can be adapted to different field situations, while making the aquifer characterization process more time-efficient and less labor-intensive.  相似文献   

Machine Learning Feature Selection Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping     

Natan Micheletti  Loris Foresti  Sylvain Robert  Michael Leuenberger  Andrea Pedrazzini  Michel Jaboyedoff  Mikhail Kanevski 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(1):33-57

This paper explores the use of adaptive support vector machines, random forests and AdaBoost for landslide susceptibility mapping in three separated regions of Canton Vaud, Switzerland, based on a set of geological, hydrological and morphological features. The feature selection properties of the three algorithms are studied to analyze the relevance of features in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides. The elimination of irrelevant features gives simpler, lower dimensional models while keeping the classification performance high. An object-based sampling procedure is considered to reduce the spatial autocorrelation of data and to estimate more reliably generalization skills when applying the model to predict the occurrence of new unknown landslides. The accuracy of the models, the relevance of features and the quality of landslide susceptibility maps were found to be high in the regions characterized by shallow landslides and low in the ones with deep-seated landslides. Despite providing similar skill, random forests and AdaBoost were found to be more efficient in performing feature selection than adaptive support vector machines. The results of this study reveal the strengths of the classification algorithms, but evidence: (1) the need for relying on more than one method for the identification of relevant variables; (2) the weakness of the adaptive scaling algorithm when used with landslide data; and (3) the lack of additional features which characterize the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides.  相似文献   

Temperature variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past 40 years,from an in situ analysis and a 3D global simulation     

S. Michel  A.-M. Treguier  F. Vandermeirsch 《Continental Shelf Research》2009,29(8):1070-1087

A global in situ analysis and a global ocean simulation are used jointly to study interannual to decadal variability of temperature in the Bay of Biscay, from 1965 to 2003. A strong cooling is obtained at all depths until the mid-1970's, followed by a sustained warming over ～30 years. Strong interannual fluctuations are superimposed on this slow evolution. The fluctuations are intensified at the surface and are weakest at ～500 m. A good agreement is found between the observed and simulated temperatures, in terms of mean values, interannual variability and time correlations. Only the decadal trend is significantly underestimated in the simulation. A comparison to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data over the last 20 years is also presented. The first mode of interannual variability exhibits a quasi-uniform structure and is related to the inverse winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Regarding the vertical structure, most cool and warm anomalies are generated at the surface, with the strongest ones penetrating down to 700 m and lasting up to 5 years. The complete heat budget from 1965 to 2004 is presented, including the contributions of vertical transport, freshwater flux and surface elevation. Interannual anomalies are mainly generated by the surface heat flux, while oceanic transports may become more important at longer time scales.  相似文献   

Optimal orbits for Mars atmosphere remote sensing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michel Capderou  François Forget 《Planetary and Space Science》2004,52(9):789-798

Most of the spacecrafts currently around Mars (or planned to reach Mars in the near future) use Sun-synchronous or near-polar orbits. Such orbits offer a very poor sampling of the diurnal cycle. Yet, sampling the diurnal cycle is of key importance to study Mars meteorology and climate. A comprehensive remote sensing data set should have been obtained by the end of the MRO mission, launched in 2005. For later windows, time-varying phenomena should be given the highest priority for remote sensing investigations. We present possible orbits for such missions which provide a rich spatial and temporal sampling with a relatively short repeat cycle (50 sols). After computation and determination of these orbits, said “optimal orbits”, we illustrate our results by tables of sampling and comparison with other orbits.  相似文献   

Discussion of the paper 'High- to ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) ductile shear zones in the Sulu UHP metamorphic belt, China: implications for continental subduction and exhumation' by Zhao et al.     

Wei Lin  Michel Faure  Patrick Monié  Nicole Le Breton 《地学学报》2005,17(1):86-88

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Monte Carlo simulation of GCR neutron capture production of cosmogenic nuclides in stony meteorites and lunar surface     

D. Kollr  R. Michel  J. Masarik 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2006,41(3):375-389

Abstract— A purely physical model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particle interaction with meteoroids is used to investigate neutron interactions down to thermal energies. Experimental and/or evaluated excitation functions are used to calculate neutron capture production rates as a function of the size of the meteoroid and the depth below its surface. Presented are the depth profiles of cosmogenic radionuclides ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Co, ⁵⁹Ni, and ¹²⁹I for meteoroid radii from 10 cm up to 500 cm and a 2π irradiation. Effects of bulk chemical composition on n‐capture processes are studied and discussed for various chondritic and lunar compositions. The mean GCR particle flux over the last 300 ka was determined from the comparison of simulations with measured ⁴¹Ca activities in the Apollo 15 drill core. The determined value significantly differs from that obtained using equivalent models of spallation residue production.  相似文献   

Influence of a hedge surrounding bottomland on seasonal soil‐water movement     

Virginie Caubel  Catherine Grimaldi  Philippe Merot  Michel Grimaldi 《水文研究》2003,17(9):1811-1821

The influence of a hedge surrounding bottomland on soil‐water movement along the hillslope was studied on a plot scale for 28 months. The study was based on the comparison of two transects, one with a hedge, the other without, using mainly a dense grid of tensiometers. The influence of the bottomland hedge was located in the area where tree roots were developed, several metres upslope from the hedge, and could be observed both in the saturated and non‐saturated zone, from May to December. The hedge induced a high rate of soil drying, because of the high evaporative capacity of the trees. We evaluated that water uptake by the hedge during the growing season was at least 100 mm higher than without a hedge. This increased drying rate led to a delayed rewetting of the soils upslope from the hedge in autumn, of about 1 month compared with the situation without a hedge. Several consequences of this delayed rewetting are expected: a delay in the return of subsurface transfer from the hillslope to the riparian zone, a buffering effect of hedges on floods, already observed at the catchment scale, and an increased residence time of pollutants. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献